As of 1708 UTC

As of 1708 UTC (18.9 hours after launch), TAM-5 had traveled 903 miles on course towards Ireland. The airplane appears to be flying slower than projected for two reasons. 1) It seems to be flying in a "draggy" mode with nearly full up elevator trim, and the engine is running a little slow (3800 on the average vs. 3900 desired). 2) Our tailwinds have been substantially less than were predicted when we committed for the flight. The latest speed numbers say we'rre traveling at about 55 miles per hour. If we continue at that rate we have yet 17.9 hours to go for a total projected flight of 36.8 hours for the whole crossing.

If the engine is running slow because it is lean, we probably have 38 hours of fuel. But if it is running slow because it is rich, we'll be in the drink well before we reach Ireland. Yet another factor is that our weather maps here show that we will have still less tailwind and more crosswind as we approach Ireland. That could put the total required flight time up to 40 or so hours. With a little luck, it might go that long!

What this message says is that our arrival in Ireland will be somewhere around 1030 UTC (11:30 am Ireland daylight time). We are presently at 32 degrees longitude, about ten hours away from the 20 degree longitude line. The estimated time after we cross the 20 degree longitude line would be another 10 hours.

If you want me to give you my bet, I'd say the odds are 50 percent that we'll make it. But if you want me to say absolutely we'll make it, I will quote the famous lines of Abraham Lincoln to General Joe Hooker when Hooker bragged about how he was going to annihilate General Lee and the Confederate Army at Fredericksburg during the winter of 1863. Lincoln wrote him to say I am pleased with your confidence and wish you well. But back in Illinois, we had a saying the hen doesn't cluck until she lays the egg. I hope we all get to cluck on Monday morning.